Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Wacky Betting System #1

As a frequent guest of local South Florida horse race betting establishments, I have met and conversed with many fellow handicappers. We all have our own methods of selecting winners. Personally, I have to sift through many details in the form before arriving at my contender selections. Occassionally, I run into people who are willing to share their methods. As I come across these techniques, I'll share them with you, dear readers. I will call the first method the Biorhythm number method.

Day 1 of the Breeder's cup, I had settled into my seat in the simulcast room and had already played a couple of races at Calder Race Course when an interesting characater sat at the station next to me. The gentleman was slightly less than average height and slightly more than average weight (aren't we all). On top of his head he sported what I like to refer to as the baby-boomer version of a comb-over. You know what I'm talking about. Rather than combing the hair from the side over the bald spot the hair is pulled straight back in tied into what is usually a stunted attempt at a pony tail.

The first thing he asked me for was the number of the winner in the first race at Calder. I told him that the 3 horse had one the first race, but thinking, perhaps, he was interested in track biases, I pointed out to him that the 3 had broken from the inside post due to late scratches in the race.

That information didn't seem to interest him at all. Instead he started going through the race results on the screen of all the races of all the tracks and writing down the first four finishers of each race without regard to distance, surface, or any other normal racing factor.

He introduced himself to me as Sal, a hair stylist (I think) and artist who had been playing the races for years. He even claimed to have done portraits of some jockey whose name I don't recall who used to race a lot at Gulfstream Park. Of course being at the race track, I take everything with a grain of salt, but, still, I had no particular reason disbelieve him.

Sal, being a talkative sort then explained his betting system to me. Apparently, Sal is of the belief that on any given day, certain numbers are more likely to come in than others. The reason has nothing to do with track conditions, trainers, jockeys, post-positions, or anything else racing related. Rather, he attributed the reason to biorhythms.

I don't think I've heard the term biorhythm since the early '70's which sort of gives you an idea of where Sal was coming from. The system was basically writing down the top finishers of every race at every track and after giving the racing form a cursory glance to make sure the hopeful number didn't belong to a totally hopeless horse construct trifecta bets either boxing contenders of keying off of a contender or two in every race he could catch around the country.

It didn't take Sal long to blow through his first $200.00 with this method, but he was still optimistic that if he persisted long enough he would hit that box car trifecta. He had done so frequently in the past, and actually, I'm quite sure he has since every once in a while even a blind squirell will find a nut.

Underterred Sal deposited another sum of money into his day account. I'm not sure how much. At least $100.00 maybe as much as $200.00. At first he remained optimistic, but as his balance began dwindling, so did his demeanor. Toward the end of his 2nd deposit he was beginning to ask me my opinion on certain races. I'm afraid I couldn't help him much since I had only handicapped the Calder and Breeder's cup races, but I gave him my opinion when it was available. Also, since I play horizontally (Pick-3 or pick 4) rather than vertically, it is a mistake to try to convert my selections to trifecta bets, although even I can get lucky once in a while.

Poor Sal drained his account a 2nd time and reluctantly returned to deposit still more money in his account. Sal is already way past the point where I would've called it a day. I have a lot of confidence in my play and recognize that I am going to go through cold streaks and hot streaks. It is the nature of the game. However, if I seem to be going through a cold period I will back down my wagers while I try to figure out what I'm missing. Not so with Sal. Confidence in one's approach is important; however, so is objectivity and discretion.

Sal was doing no better with his third deposit and was now feeling the need to point out to me how close he had been coming. If only this horse had not finished in the money or if only he had boxed this group instead of keying a horse. I'm not quite sure if he trying to convince me or himself, but as is third deposit dwindled, so did his resolve. By the end of the third deposit, Sal was quite defeated.

I commiserated with Sal and told him surely he would have better luck tomorrow which is probably true since he couldn't have had worse. But Sal wasn't coming back tomorrow.

Sal has a problem. Sal is looking for quick easy payoffs and is not willing to make the effort to actually understand a race in all its facets such as speed, pace, class, and conditions. Its much easier just to play numbers. No homework is required. Actually, in a way Sal is a throwback to a time when horse racing had much less competition for the gambler's dollars. Sal would be just as happy, or miserable, playing slot machines and lotteries. He just hasn't realized it yet.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Breeder's Cup Post-Mortem


What can I say? Every race this weekend was a complete nail-biter. My only wish is that my personal selections on Saturday would've been better. Of the 9 races, only 2 contenders managed to find the winner's circle.

In the Marathon I wound up on Big Booster who, at least managed to finish a competitive 3rd.

In the Turf Sprint I knew there was a strong possibility that Mr. Nightlinger and California Flag would duel each other to a collapse on the front end, but I was unable to come up with correct horse to pick up the pieces. Three selections in this race came up as overlays, by my reckoning, indicating I didn't have a very good grasp of this race. The betting collective is not stupid by any means, so if I seem to run this far against the grain I stay out of the race.

The dirt mile was another complete whiff on my part. I split my wager between Surf Cat and Pyro. I knew Pyro would have his work cut out for him here, but I really thought Surf Cat would put in a stronger performance.

For the Breeder's Cup Mile, I clearly underestimated how good Goldikova is by making her 5-1. I played the 3rd place finisher, Whatthescript, but it wasn't close once Goldy found a seam and turned on the jets. Goldikova was one of the horses getting a lot of buzz all week long which just naturally raised my contrarian instincts. However the buzz was correct this time. And just think, this is the second best filly in Europe this year.

The BC Juvenile offered what I believed to be the first good Pick-3 opportunity of the day with the top selection of Bushranger going off at 5-1. As you know by now, Bushranger diappointed and killed both my Pick 3 and my win bet.

Not to be discouraged, the BC Juvenile Turf race was one race I felt very confident about and again my top choice, Bittel Road, was going off at nice odds. Another Pick 3/Win bet shot down quickly.

I really have to give Bob Baffert credit getting Midnight Lute ready for the BC Sprint coming off his last race. If I'd have given him credit before the race rather than after I might've been better off. Black Seventeen was my huckleberry in this race. Another win bet off the board.

The bright spot of the day was Conduit in the BC Turf. Soldier of Fortune was the buzz horse in this race, so this was a time when discounting the buzz horse paid off. Conduit, being my top choice, got my maximum bet and paid off a little better than 5 to 1. This race combined with a couple of max bet winners earlier at Calder Race Course made the day slightly profitable as well as entertaining.

The BC Classic lived up to its billing. I made a token exacta bet with Curlin on top of Colonel John just because it was Curlin's last race but otherwise decided to sit the race out. I really thought Curlin was going win and drag Colonel John behind him when he made the big sweeping move on the turn with CJ in tow. Then Curlin seemed to flatten out down the stretch and get swallowed by a wave of horse flesh with Raven's Pass clearly the better horse on this day. All the same, I'd happily trade places with Curlin as he heads off to a leisurely retirement of carnal pleasure.

Well there you have it. All in all I had a great weekend, and made a little money. After the classic, I took my lovely wife upstairs to the Ten Palms restautant where we enjoyed the all you can eat buffet with some of my winnings for the weekend. It was the least I could do after pretty much abandoning her for the entire weekend.

Well its back to my day job on Monday and the more mundane world, but easier to fathom, world of cheap claiming horses at CRC. Until next time.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Maram Wins!




Not a bad first day of Breeder's Cup racing, and the fillies and mares put on a great show. My selections were pretty good as the opening race was the only one I totally whiffed on. My method is not about picking winners so much as finding the likely contenders, assigning value and playing the horse that offers the best value or not playing at all if the valuation standards are not met.

Loved Zenayatta's race! What other horse can go 6 wide and get taken even wider by another competitor and still win with such ease. But Zenyatta was not a value play. The value play that paid turned out to be the 11-1 Maram in the 1 mile BC Juvenile Filly. You don't have to find too many of them to make your day!

Let's hope the boys can put on as good a show tomorrow as the girls did today.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Breeder's Cup Eve

At last, the moment we've all been waiting for, the Chalk Eating Weasel's Breeder's Cup Selections.

The first race on Friday is the 7 Furlong BC Filly and Mare Sprint. I saw on TVG today that Indyanne, whom I had the pleasure of watching demolish the G3 Azalea field at CRC this year, has a 90% probability of being scratched as she has developed a fever. I didn't have her as a win contender, but she certainly would've been a pace factor. As it is there is still plenty of pace in this race between Dearest Tricksi and Dream Rush. All this is to say that this race appears to set up for, and I'm going to go out on a limb here, Indian Blessing. Yes I know, a chalk eating weasel for sure. But just think, you could've paid some expert $20.00 or more to give you this same information I'm giving you for free. And here's the bonus.
Contenders: Indian Blessing at 9-5 so the overlay is 5-2, Zaftig is the 2nd choice, one of the few blemishes on IB's record at 5-2 overlay 4-1, and Intangaroo also has a sporting chance at fair odds of 5-1 overlay needs to be 8-1.

Note that my purpose is not to predict order of finish, but likelihood of winning. You'll have to come up with your own trifectas, but you can link these picks to the next races for pick 3's and 4's and, dare I say it, 6's.

1 Mile BC Juvenile Filly Turf

The Santa Anita Turf has been playing to speed for the Oak tree meet and I don't think anything will change that. Laragh, ridden by the crafty Edgar Prado, has all the speed here and is my favorite to win at fair odds of 2-1 and overlay odds of 3-1. I also like the G3 Canadian horse C Karma at 5-2 and 4-1 and the undefeated Maram at 4-1 and 6-1.

1 1/16 Mile BC Juvenile Filly

G1 Frizette winner Sky Diva is unbeaten in 2 outings. The running line comment for the Frizette reads, "Periodic hand urges". That means she has more in reserve if needed. Therefore I make her my fave @ 3-1 needing 9-2 for the overlay. Stardom Bound gets the home track advantage and is the 2nd choice @ 7-2 needing 5-1. C.S. Silk fired a monster fig. at Arlington Park last out and will be all elbow and asshole to the field with a repeat and is the 3rd choice @4-1 needing 6-1 for the overlay. I also have to throw in Dream Empress although I don't like the 12 post. Still Desormeaux is one of the best on turf and she is a G1 winner so @ 6-1 needing 9-1 would be worth a flyer.

1 1/4 BC Filly and Mare Turf

A couple of capable foreigners in here, but I'm staying with the good ol' US of A for this one. Wait A While no really I'll tell you later ; ) Wait a While has a G1 win over the course for the Pletcher-Velazquez connection. Last year you could take that combo to the bank. Lately... Still the horse has been nothing but consistent and fast and is my top choice at 3-1 needing 9-2. Dynaforce is the 2nd choice @7-2 needing 5-1, but if you believe in figure patterns some caution may in order as the read 94-103-93-103 suggesting DF may not bring her best this time. By the way, I use Brisnet's PP's as I've found the information and layout to be far superior to DRF. Mauralakana shows the opposite pattern to DF, so maybe I'll flip them, but now I have her at 9-2 needing 7-1. finally Forever Together has been showing good form at 7 different tracks for last 7 races. Give her 5-1 needing 8-1.

1 1/8 mile BC Ladies Classic

Who can beat Zenyatta, maybe the hard working Ginger Punch or the exotic Cocoa Beach, but I'm not betting on it. Zenyatta is even money for me needing 3-2 to bet her. Cocoa Beach gets the 2nd call @5-1 needing 8-1 and Ginger Punch gets 6-1 needing 9-1.

Now for the Boys, and some Girls

1 1/2 Mile BC Marathon

Sixties Icon has been having no trouble winning on the soggy Euro turf at this distance and I expect he'll transfer that form onto the artificial surface with no problem. I make 3-1 and will need 9-2. Delightful Kiss is the 2nd choice and I can think of no better ground saving type of rider than Calvin Borel to guide a horse in a race like this. Make him 7-2 needing 5-1. Zappa gets the home field advantage 9-2 need 7-1 and Big Booster is rested and seems capable of upsetting the field for a big price 6-1 and no less than 9-1.

Ok, I'm getting tired and I've been at this all day so here is the rest, no commentary just picks and odds.

6 1/2 F BC turf Sprint

Mr. Nightlinger 3-1 9-2
California Flag 3-1 9-2
Only Answer 5-1, 8-1
Fleeting Spirit 6-1, 9-1

1 Mile BC Dirt Mile

Well Armed 5-2, 4-1
Lewis Michael 4-1, 6-1
Surf Cat 5-1, 8-1
Pyro 6-1, 9-1

1 Mile BC Turf Mile

Daytona 3-1, 9-2
Whatthescript 7-2, 5-1
Precious Kitten 9-2, 7-1
Goldikova 5-1, 8-1

1 1/16 BC Juvenile

Bushranger 3-1, 9-2
Square Eddie 4-1, 6-1
Munnings 4-1, 6-1
Street Hero 6-1, 9-1

1 Mile BC Juvenile Turf

Bittel Road 8-5, 5-2
Grand Adventure 3-1, 9-2
Westphalia 9-2, 7-1

6F BC Sprint

Street Boss 3-1, 9-2
Black Seventeen 7-2, 5-1
Cost of Freedom 9-2, 7-1
Fabulous Strike 6-1, 9-1

1 1/2 Mile BC Turf

Conduit 2-1, 3-1
Soldier of Fortune 5-2, 4-1
Grand Courtier 4-1, 6-1

1 1/4 BC Classic

Curlin (who else) 8-5, 5-2
Go Between 6-1, 9-1
Casino Drive 6-1, 9-1
Duke of Marmalade 6-1, 9-1

I'll be in seat 52 of the Super Corral at in the Silks Simulcast Center at Gulfstream Racecourse tomorrow and Saturday if you want to come buy me a Woodford Reserve

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Humbled

The good thing about betting on horses is that it will keep you humble. Even though I've had an exceptionally good season at CRC this year, yesterday was not one of those days. I don't think I even got close on anything. The good news is there is always another day!

Right now I'm just saving my racing energy for the Breeder's Cup races coming up on Friday and Saturday. I will try to get the Brisnet past performances as early as I can after the Post Position draw on Tuesday. Hopefully I can get the early edition without the Morning Lines.

As I've said before, I make my own odds lines and I don't like to see other opinions because they influence my decisions. Also, I don't like the Morning Lines put out by whoever does them for Calder. The morning line is supposed to reflect how the line maker believes the collective will bet the race. At CRC, it seems the line maker is trying to predict the out come of the race with his lines as the list track choices always fall in line with the ML odds line.

I'm not particularly interested in tout sheets or paying for the picks of others. The few experiences I have had buying picks, as you can from Brisnet and many other sources, is that they don't seem to have anymore insight than I do. Therefore, I like to make my selections without being biased by outside influences. Just give me the data, baby.

That is not to say I am totally disinterested in the opinions of others, and if given the opportunity, I will try find out what others think. I particularly like Mark Cramer, the author of the C & X report. Most of his books are out of print, but if you can find one for a reasonable price I urge you to get it. Mark's approach to racing is a little sideways sometimes, but if you approach racing from the same angle as the collective, you will find it more difficult to find those over-looked longshots.

I am going to concentrate on the CRC races for Friday and Saturday and try to watch the BC races purely as a fan. However, if I have the time and the energy, I will try to post my selections for the BC races along with my suggested playing odds.

I also haven't decided where I am going to watch the races from. I love the Gulfstream simulcast facility with the HD flat screen TV's. But if it is anything like last year it will be crowded. I prefer to see live horses whenever I can, but while CRC does have simulcast racing, it has no real simulcast facility. It would really be nice if Twinspires, owners of CRC, would spend a little money and upgrade the place some. Perhaps if they thought a little more about their patron's comfort and less about squeezing every dime they can out of the place attendance would be better and they could attract a little higher class clientele.

Are you listening out there, Twinspires?

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Breeder's Cup Weekend

It's coming. BC Weekend is soon to be upon us. I don't know how I will ever make a regular contribution here and keep up with my handicapping. I can tell you this, I will probably handicap the Calder Race Course card, maybe Golden Gate or Belmont and just enjoy the BC races for what they are.

One reason is that I always find these races to be very difficult as all of the entries are legitimate contenders. I suspect even the great Curlin will have to work harder than usual to pull this one off. I'm much better at capping claimers than the high class racers and have the records to prove it.

Speaking of the great Curlin, he is sure to be a huge underlay. Do not bet him in the classic at anything less than 8 to 5. Even if you think he will win. After the Cup races I will have more time to discuss handicapping and my approach. For now I will leave you with this. I believe if I can make an odds line superior to the actual odds line created by the betting collective, I have a distinct advantage over the collective. More on that another time.