Saturday, June 27, 2009

Public Handicapper and HANA selections for June 27

I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.

Now for the races.

Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up


Colonial R9
4:39

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.

Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies


Monmouth R9
4:50

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.

The HANA Race of the week

Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up


#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.

Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up


Canterbury R8
6:03

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.

Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)


Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.

That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Handicapping The Handicapper

Firstly, my apologies for not posting the HANA and Public Handicappers picks this week. It was just one of those weeks and I didn't have the time to make the post. You didn't miss much with the PH races; however, I am sorry you missed the my only overlay out of 4 contenders in the 7th at Monmouth, Themanmythnlegend ridden by the stunning Shannon Uske, who rode a terrific race to guide Themanmythnlegend through some horrific traffic down the stretch and get her mount up in time, and trained by Lloyd Kromann. Themanmythnlegend paid 24.60 to win.





While driving down the street one recent day, I revealed to my lovely wife that I'd like to write a book sometime before I pass on to whatever awaits after this life. Because of my line of work, I am a published author in a few respected scientific journals. Although I must admit that other people did the writing. That is the way it works in the scientific world where the principle investigator usually does the writing and gives co-authorship to others who contributed in some way to the generating of the published work.





My wife asked me what I would write about and I answered,"I don't really know, I just know I'd like to write a book, novel or something." Of course, she suggested I write a book on horse racing since that is how I spend most of my spare time. Unfortunately, I had to confess that there is not much new I could really introduce on the subject since nearly all of what I have learned has come from the writings of others on the topic. In that respect, I can only parrot those who have written before me. What would be the point?





Now, for those 2 of you who have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I am big on creating an odds line on my favorite contender for any race I contemplate playing. This is not my creation but is promoted by such racing-author luminaries as Barry Meadow, Mark Cramer, and Steve Fiero. I love their books and highly recommend each and everyone of them.





However, one major flaw I find in all of these books is that while each of them promote the making of an odds line for contenders, or even the entire field, in a race, each of them come up short in the how to exactly make an accurate odds line. Steve Fiero does offer a handy chart to help set up an odds line for 3 and 4 contender races where your contenders are assigned an overall probability of 80% to win the race. Mark Cramer in his book, "The Odds On Your Side" makes an attempt at giving a more defined process of creating an odds line, but it still requires that you assign a % value of one or more factors which will influence the outcome of the race and how each horse will either benefit or be disadvantaged by such factors. In the end, it is no less subjective than any other method of assigning an odds line.





Before going any further, let me explain to those who may not know that odds are simply another way of stating the probability of an event occurring. In our case, a particular horse winning the race. I typically think in terms of probabilities rather than odds because that is how my mind has been trained for many years; however, converting probabilities to odds is a simple mathematic operation. For instance, if you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning the race the odds are 3-1. The conversion is simple: 1/0.25 = 4 then 4-1 =3 and, voila, 3-1 is the odds of your 25% chance.





Calculating odds from probabilities is a simple process. Assigning probabilities is not so simple. There are many factors and a high degree of randomness in any race. As a handicapper, we have to weigh every factor against the other in an attempt to decipher the horses most deserving of being considered contenders in the race. Then, if you are concerned with getting a fair price for your investment, you have to make your best guess as to what the proper odds for each contender may be. And a guess is just what it is.



There are computer programs available that will do this guessing for you. Check out Brisnet.com where you can choose from several free downloads. I tried the Allways program a few times a couple of years ago. Wasn't really all that impressed. But the truth is, any program you use to choose contenders is basically guessing. Someone had to write the program, and, in the writing of the program, had to weigh various performance and statistical factors so that the program can make a decision and assign a probability. A question you should ask yourself is how the programmer arrived at the different weightings? Perhaps the programmer used a very strict statistical method to arrive at the weightings. Perhaps the programmer used some trial and error with a lot of back testing to arrive at the ratings. Remember past performance is no guarantee of future returns.



Computers are marvelous inventions and most excellent at crunching numbers. We use computers to send spacecraft to Mars and beyond. Some computers are capable of defeating the best human chess players. But I doubt there will ever be a computer that can out handicap a good horseplayer. Computers are not so good with intangibles. What computer predicted that Dunkirk was going to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes? Maybe Todd Pletcher's. Maybe Mr. Pletcher has a program that calculated the best chance Dunkirk had to win the race was to surprise everyone and go to the front. Somehow I doubt it. If you have a computer program that consistently keeps you ahead of the game I want to know about it. Not that I would use it, because that would take all the fun out of the game.



So the question becomes, if all our best efforts at making an odds line amount to mere guess work, then where can we find hard numbers from which to make an odds line. I'm here to suggest that one has to look no further than one's own performance to make an odds line. Handicap the handicappper.



Yes you read correctly. Keep a record of how often your top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd, 4th, etc. win and base your odds on the winning percentage of each. For instance, if you are a very good handicapper and your top choice wins 33% of the time than you can make the odds for that choice 2-1. If I had the odds at 2-1, then I would ask for 3-1 before playing, but you can make that decision for yourself.



Its important while doing this to keep your records as close to being a reflection of your current performance as possible. After all, unless you are Super Handicapper you go through hot streaks and cold streaks just as I do. If you can track your performance in such a way then you would be able to bet more at lower odds when hot and less at higher odds when chilly maximizing the return on your investment. For this purpose, I recommend using a 30 race moving average.



Creating a moving average is simple. Once you add a result at the end of a series, remove the result at the beginning of the series. For example, when I add result 31 to my records, I remove result number 1 from the average. When result number 32 is added, then result number 2 is removed and on and on and on.



Now the number 30 for the moving average was not pulled out of thin air. For statistical purposes 30 events is usually considered significant for giving reliable data. One drawback of using a moving average is that it is a lagging statistic. If we used, for instance, a 60 race moving average, it may be a better overall indication of our handicapping ability, but it would be less reflective of our current performance.

Now the real beauty of this methodology is that you can conceivably handicap an entire race card without ever looking at a past performance. Does your local newspaper have a handicapper? You could handicap how well he does with his picks. Calculate odds for each selection and play off the local tout's picks.

Another possibility is to handicap how well the masses are at picking winners. Check out the results charts for any track you are interested in and calculate how often the first, second, third and fourth choices come in. If you choose the to handicap masses, I suggest you divide the races into logical divisions such as dirt and turf, sprints and routes, maiden claimers and stakes races, etc. The choices are nearly limitless.

Now in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that I really have not tried this out on anything but my own performance. And the moving average thing, that's just something that I came up with as I was brainstorming the idea. But, at least, using this method, you have something concrete to base your line on. I don't know about you but this idea makes perfect sense to me. On the other hand, perhaps this will merely qualify as another whacky betting method. There is one way to find out. Run the numbers.

I'll be back in a day or two with my HANA and PH picks for Saturday. The HANA race will be the 9th at Arlington Park. A 5 furlong Turf Sprint, one of my favorites.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Summit of Speed Preview

Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.

Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.

The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.

So without further ado.

Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.


CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1



#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta

Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.

CRC Race 8
4:16

#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1



#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out

Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.


CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1



#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.

To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.


MTH Race 9
4:50

#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP

Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up


CRC Race 10
5:08

#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1



#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.

Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.


CD Race 10
5:29

#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo

Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.


CRC Race 11
5:34

#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1



#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.

Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.


CD Race 11
5:58

#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch

Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up


HOL Race 9
8:08


#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.

My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.

Good Luck and enjoy the races.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Belmont Day!

Back to the races for me. Of course its Belmont Stakes day so there is a lot of excitement being generated. I'll be attending the races at Calder although I will likely run out of steam and come home to watch the big race on television.

Its a strange day at Calder with only one minor stakes race being run on the turf. The problem is, you think its been raining in New York, you've never seen anything like the gully washers we get here in Florida. I'm talking inches per hour. Currently, the sky is clear and cloudless, but we have had nearly non-stop afternoon rain for the last 2 weeks. I am very doubtful that Calder will run on the turf course today. At best they will only run the 11th race on the grass if it rains no more today. This makes handicapping all the races scheduled for turf near impossible because there is no way to know who is going to run on what surface until it is announced. As of this writing, it has not been announced.

The weather for New York is supposed to be perfect today. It will be interesting to see how much water the main track retains and how the surface will run. Yesterday the rail seemed like a conveyor belt and no one was making up any ground on the middle part of the track. The turf course will likely be pretty soggy, but I believe they will run on it as long as there is no more
rain and the jockeys don't protest too much.

Of course, I do have decisions on the races. The notes will be brief if any because I've been very busy this past week. Lucky for me, Public Handicapper made races 8, 9, 10, and 11 there races for the week so I was at least able to kill two birds with one stone as the cliche goes. You will also get two bonus races from Belmont so let's get started.

Race 6 is the True North Hdcp--G2 contested at 6f for 3up


#1 Benny The Bull
2-1
3-1
#6 Fabulous Strike
5-2
4-1
#3 Two Step Salsa
4-1
6-1

Benny The Bull has been off for 10 months. I saw him run his last race here at CRC. I thought I had heard or read that he was being retired to stud shortly after that race due to some kind of minor injury. I guess IEAH decided the stud market was not as strong as they would've liked this year. Please, no cards or letters on this one. Maybe I was mistaken. At any rate, 10 months is a long time off, but I still think BTB is the best sprinter in the country if he remains his old self. The way I see it, the cheap speed in the race, Sixthirteen, will force the stalkers to chase him faster than they would like setting the race up perfectly for Benny's big closing drive. Desert Key will be a factor in that scenario and may overcome it. But despite being right there his last 4 times out, he has not been able to get under the wire first for the big one. Bad case of 2nditis going on here. Two Step Salsa, fresh back from two UAE wins doesn't seem to have that problem and is 3 for 3 at the distance. Looks like an interesting race.

Race 7 Just A Game Stakes--G1 1mile on the grass for F and M 3up


#5 Forever Together
2-1
3-1
#1 Carribean Sunset
9-2
7-1
#4 I Lost My Choo
5-1
8-1
#3 Captain's Lover
6-1
9-1

This race reminded me alot of last weeks McKayMacKellan except with better horses. I think Forever Together is the standout. Flip a coin for the rest of the field. I found Carribean Sunset, Group 3 winner in Ireland, and Captain's Lover, Group 3 winner at Longchamp, to be intruiging because of their success on soft turf which I suspect we will have today. The knock against Captain's Lover will be the 8 month layoff or she would be the 2nd choice.

Race 8 Woody Stephens Stakes--G2 For 3 year olds


1/1A Regal Ranson/Everyday Heroes
3-1
9-2
#8 Hull
7-2
5-1
#2 This Ones For Phil
9-2
7-1
#6 Hello Broadway
6-1
9-1

I like the entry and its one of those rare occassions where I don't really care which or if both horses run, I still like the entry. Regal Ransom is coming off a perfect turnback set-up. One of my favorite angles. Its just too bad that, despite his 8th place finish, he is still likely to see alot of action. Hull is unbeaten in 3 tries including the G3 Derby Trial at Churchill. Tries to move to the next level. This Ones For Phil has made a believer out of me and turnsback to a distance that will be more to his liking. Hello Broadway ran a strange race last out setting impossible early fractions and fading to 4th behind Charitable Man, Imperial Council and Brave Victory. Barclay Tagg played dumb in an interview after the race suggesting that someday maybe they'd be able to get inside that horse's head. Now he's taking the blinkers back off and changing riders to Ramon Dominguez who has won at a 29% clip riding for Tagg over the last 60 days. Hmmmmm.

Race 9 Acorn Stakes--G1 I mile for Fillies 3yo.


#8 Justwhistledixie
5-2
4-1
#7 Dream Play
3-1
7-2
#5 Doremifasollatido
6-1
9-1
#1 Cassanova Move
6-1
9-1

Before scratching from the Ky Oaks, Justwhistledixie was the only horse I thought had the slightest chance of beating Rachel Alexandra. A bullet w/o over the track and an off/on figure pattern suggesting "on" for this race with Leparoux in the irons sounds like a winner to me. Dream Play has run 3 successive good races and can certainly beat the top choice which is why the odds for the fave are so tepid. I just put Doremifasollatido in here because I want to hear the track announcer call her name. Also, she is 2 of 4 over the track and 4 times in the money here. A G2 stakes winner coming 2nd off the layoff should be ready. Cassanova Move has finished 2nd or 3rd to the favorite 3 times. Is this the race where she moves forward? I don't know, but take a shot if she's a long price.

Race 10 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Hdcp--G1 1 1/4 mile on turf for 3 up


#1 Court Vision
3-1
9-2
#5 Gio Ponti
7-2
5-1
#12 Cowboy Cal
4-1
6-1
#2 Champs Elysees
5-1
8-1

Court Vision is a G1 winner, has won on the course, and has Ramon Dominguez winning at a 25% clip in Turf races on his back. Gio Ponti is just a horse that likes to win, 6 for 11 lifetime, and is 2 for 3 over the Belmont course. Cowboy Cal is a horse very capable of beating any of these in this competitive field including G1 winner Champs Elysees who gets the always dangerous Julian Lepaoux for the trip. A very competitive race that anyone of the four could win. Box the 0.10 cent superfecta on this one.

Now for the big one

Race 10 Belmont Stakes--G1 for 3 year olds.


#6 Charitable Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Dunkirk
7-2
5-1
#7 Mine That Bird
4-1
6-1
#4 Summer Bird
6-1
9-1

Charitable Man is rested 2 for 2 at Belmont, no worries about how he'll handle Big Sandy, and was pointed to this race after the Bluegrass Stakes. Dunkirk got mobbed in the Derby and had a bent shoe to show for his efforts. His quick turn of foot should put him in good position to be first under the wire. Mine That Bird has made me a believer; however, in the span of 5 weeks this horse has been vanned from New Mexico to New York and run in two difficult races along the way. Woolley says he's looking good and handling the track well, but I have my doubts about how much may be left in the tank. Summer Bird gets a top tier rider change to Kent Desormeaux who, no doubt, will want to perform better this year than he did in last year's race on Big Brown. Summer Bird came straight to Belmont from the Derby and, like Charitable Man and Dunkirk, should be fresh for the race. Just the type of longshot that so often wins this affair.

So there you have it. Good luck to you and safe trips for all the horses and riders.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Mea Culpa

Back for a little look at how the picks did last Saturday, but first a word about the condition of Rene Douglas. I thought I had heard reported on TVG that a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas. I have not been able to confirm that from any other source. Hence, I believe that I misheard whatever was said about his condition. If my error has caused anyone distress, my bad. Still, let's hope my error turns out to be correct.

I am getting so inundated with punditry regarding the Belmont that I'm not sure I can maintain my objectivity in approaching the race. I may have to pass the race on that basis alone. No doubt the race will be a Public Handicapper race, so I'll have to take a shot for the contest. However, I am hearing so much about Summer Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk, et.al. that it may all be too confuddled in my little head. The one horse that doesn't seem to be getting much pundit respect is Mine That Bird. Most pundits seem to think he's beatable here, and their probably right as far as it goes. Be that as it may, I will look at the pp's once they're out and, of course, let you know what I think about the race. I just worry that it will not be my opinion.

Last Saturday was a good day for the Weasel as he had the winner in 2 of 4 races. Ironically, it was the other two races the Weasel actually cashed in on. The Weasel passed the the McKayMacKenna Stakes and the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes due to a lack of overlays.

Spring House was an easy choice in the Golden Gate Fields, and I felt the only horse that had a real chance to upset the 3 to 5 favorite was Yacht Spotter. However, I felt that Shem, starting from the inside post, would deny Yacht Spotter the opportunity to get loose and comfortable on the lead. I was wrong as Shem was content to sit 2 to 3 lengths off the leading Yacht Spotter for 6 furlongs before fading into oblivion. Perhaps Shem was trying and just wasn't fast enough, I dunno. Still, even with the easy lead Spring House was too much for the rest of the field and Yacht Spotter at the end. A good race to pass.

The McKayMacKenna Stakes at Belmont is a little more frustrating. True, I had the winner, and had I followed my usual custom of key boxing my win bet with the other contenders I'd have had a decent exacta as well. And if I had gone so far as to fashion some sort of trifecta keying on the win choice...well you get where I'm going here as I had the top three finishers with only La Hernanda disappointing. This is where the betting line comes in and I have to question if my line was accurate. 5-2 really isn't a bad price to get on a favorite. Officially the final price was 2.3-1 but Scolara sat at 5-2 for most of the time. This race was restricted to non winners of major stakes and was particularly competitive as a result. I still thought Scolara was a little bit of a stand out over the others so the question becomes, was I too cautious in making Scolara 2-1. According to the racetype stats available in the Brisnet Ultimate PP's the favorite wins this particular type race 25% of the time which equates to 3-1 in odds. Unfortunately, this particular statistic is only based on 4 races, so it is not a particularly strong number to use. For instance, if a similar race is carded this Saturday the stat would say the favorite wins 40% of the time equating to odds of 3-2. Quite a difference.

So there is the conundrum. You can see by my picks that I'm not trying tout some wiseguy pick. No shouting,"COME SEE THE CHALK EATING WEASEL'S 20-1 MORTAL LOCK PICK OF THE DAY." My edge, at least I think it is my edge, is the ability to more accurately determine a horses probability of winning than the betting collective. Now, I'm not so arrogant as to think I'm smarter than the rest of the world. The crowd collectively gets it right for the most part. I just look for those little tremors in the force, to use a little Star Wars reference. So after all of this is said and done, I'm still not sure if my line for this race as accurate as it could've been.

I think I found a couple of tremors in the force in the Aristides and the Gamely stakes. In the Aristides, my favorite was Semaphore Man. The favoritism was based largely on his consistent performance over 3 different dirt surfaces: Oaklawn, Retama, and Fairgrounds. Reminded me of another recent Kelly Von Hemel stakes winner (remember Euphony?).

I was surprised Semaphore Man was not more heavily played, but at 6-1 he was a slam dunk for a wager and he almost pulled it off getting beat down the stretch by Bold Start. Luckily for me, I called an audible when I found out Cassoulet had been scratched and substituted Bold Start as a contender. I'd like to take credit for that piece of fancy footwork the the truth is I just substituted Public Handicapper's Carsoni's pick as he had posted it in the HANA group and the reasoning made sense to me. Thank's Carsoni! Following my custom of the exacta as place bet, the result was a winning wager for the race.

The other tremor in the force I found was Magical Fantasy in the Gamely Stakes. I honestly thought Black Mamba was the best horse in the race and Diamond Diva was definitely a horse for the course. But Magical Fantasy had beaten Black Mamba one race ago and was getting no respect at 6-1. Again, a slam dunk win wager. If only Diamond Diva could've held off Visit and completed the exacta.

Well, it's a little hard to be self critical when one was as on as I was last week. You really can learn more from your losses than your wins. However it is more fun to revel in wins. I would like to know what woke up Visit who so far has been nothing but an also ran in the States. Of course, Visit was still an also ran here, but showed a little spunk this time. I think, up until this race, that spunk has been lacking. Perhaps a horse on the improve that may be worth a closer look next race.

Ok, I also just brainstormed a betting strategy combining the Pick-3 with use of exactas, but I'll have to save that for another time.

See you for the Belmont

Jeff aka Chalk Eating Weasel