First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
Here is a picture of my wife visiting with Get Serious and trainer John Forbes at his stall at Monmouth the day before the Haskell Stakes this year.
The 8 year old gelding has some plusses and minuses going for him in this race. On the plus side, he likes to run on firm turf, which he should get, he likes to run on the lead, which he should get, and I think jockey Elvis Trujillo may be a particularly good fit for Get Serious based on his ability to get horses wire to wire on the turf.
On the minus side, Get Serious has not been training seriously since leaving New Jersey with last Thursday's allowance sprint serving as a public workout. Also on the minus side is that the turf course has, thus far, not been particular kind to need to lead types like Get Serious.
I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins and will have him on my tickets, but I will go elsewhere for the key horse today.
Number 2 Teaks North (15/1) brings a ton of back class into this race. On the plus side, if he runs back to his 4 year old figures he will have a very good chance to win here. On the negative side he has been side lined for nearly 11 months. However, I am not a believer that these long layoffs are necessarily as bad as the old timers think they are. I think medications, therapies, and training techniques are much more advanced than they were even 10 years ago, and we all know about Richard Dutrow and medications, eh?
But finally, I need a horse to use as a key and the winner is, drum roll please, #6 Tune Me In (10/1). Tune Me In rounded into form in the G3 Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park on September 1 beating both Salto and Get Serious and hasn't missed a beat since. I look for Tune Me In to continue his good form under new trainer Jane Cibelli. Cibelli wins at an 18% clip when running a horse for the first time and if we get 10/1 this will be a bargain. Look for Tune Me In to stalk Get Serious again and try to take over when the horse hit the stretch.
Final analysis, Tune Me In to win and keyed in the exotics with Teaks North, Get Serious, and Beaux Choix.
Pick 4 selections races 7-10 GP: 6,9,5,7/5,2, 4, 3(?)/6,2,3,10,14/1,4,8,6,9,11
Pick 4 selections races 2-5 at Fair Grounds: 11,4,2,1a/1,3/8,1,5/4,6,7
Unfortunately Fair Grounds polluted the late P4 with a race for 2 year old all of which with the exception of one have never raced before. Sheesh?
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
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