It Ain't The Heat, It's the Humidity

It looks to be a warm and muggy winter day here in South Florida today.  There is a small chance of showers, but it looks as though the turf races will be run so far today.

Last week was definitely a big swing and miss.  Not only did Nikki's Sandcastle win from the 14 post, actually 13 due to a scratch, but none of my contenders did any running to even give me a thrill for my money.  In fact the entire weekend seemed to go that way for me.  Today's another day so let's dive in and see what we can find to get some of those hard earned dollars back.

The Mr. Prospector is today's 5th race.  I suspect the race was moved up to 5 so as not to pollute the Pick 5 and Pick 4 with a 6 horse field which would, no doubt, depress the handles in those fields.  I have no unique insights into this race.  Four of the six entrants in this race like to go to the lead early, so I suspect the race will set up for a stalker/closer type.  This scenario puts me square on the #6 horse Indiano (8/5), who I expect will turn the tables on Action Andy (6/5).  The value in the race may be the #5 Partyallnightlong (12/1) who should also benefit from hot early fractions.  I suspect Action Andy may be due for an off race after three to efforts in a row and look for #1 Bull Dozer (6/1) to round out the trifecta.

The race I want to talk about is the 9th race at GP, a first level Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 and up.  The race is 9 furlongs which is important because the field gets some extra distance before hitting the first turn.  This should benefit the #11 filly, morning line favorite, Riolama (5/2).  Of course, if I thought Riolama were a sure thing here, I wouldn't be writing about this race.

Riolama has every right to win this race.  She is a lightly raced 3 year old coming off a new top last out with every right to improve with 3 months rest. 

Another contender is #2 High On Kitten (6/1).  This filly must be a bit of a disappointment to Ken and Sarah Ramsey with only 2 wins in 20 outings.  Still, she appears to be a good fit here with figure wise and Wesley Ward and Julio Garcia have been clicking together for a gaudy 28% win rate when teaming up.  She has got to figure on your tickets.

I also like the #9 Marlin Mission (4/1) running for Dale Romans.  She is another lightly raced 3 year old with competitive figures who is likely to improve and it could be today.

Finally, I arrive at the key horse for today's race #1 Sex Appeal (12/1).  Sex Appeal has little more experience than some others in here as a 4 year old filly.  She runs between 6 and 8 Thoro-Graph numbers which places her right in the thick of it if she runs her best.  By comparison, the best race for the morning line favorite Riolama is a 8 (lower numbers are better).  Granted Riolama has a greater right to improve, but with only 13 career races, it is possible Sex Appeal has not yet fired her best shot.  In addition, she draws the more favorable inside post and figures to save some ground relative to here outside competitors.  Today could be the day she breaks out that life time best and I am willing to take the chance at 12/1 or somewhere in that neighborhood.

In plain English.  1. Sex Appeal to win and key with 11 Riolama, 2 High On Kitten, and 9 Marlin Mission in the exotic pools.

Late P4 at GP (Races 7-10): 7,8,9,6/7,6,3,1/1,11,2,9/5,8,2

Late P4 at Tampa (Races 7-10): 4,8,7,1/8,9,7,2/5,7,3/7,5,6,1

Audentes Fortuna Juvat!