It looks to be a warm and muggy winter day here in South Florida today. There is a small chance of showers, but it looks as though the turf races will be run so far today.
Last week was definitely a big swing and miss. Not only did Nikki's Sandcastle win from the 14 post, actually 13 due to a scratch, but none of my contenders did any running to even give me a thrill for my money. In fact the entire weekend seemed to go that way for me. Today's another day so let's dive in and see what we can find to get some of those hard earned dollars back.
The Mr. Prospector is today's 5th race. I suspect the race was moved up to 5 so as not to pollute the Pick 5 and Pick 4 with a 6 horse field which would, no doubt, depress the handles in those fields. I have no unique insights into this race. Four of the six entrants in this race like to go to the lead early, so I suspect the race will set up for a stalker/closer type. This scenario puts me square on the #6 horse Indiano (8/5), who I expect will turn the tables on Action Andy (6/5). The value in the race may be the #5 Partyallnightlong (12/1) who should also benefit from hot early fractions. I suspect Action Andy may be due for an off race after three to efforts in a row and look for #1 Bull Dozer (6/1) to round out the trifecta.
The race I want to talk about is the 9th race at GP, a first level Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 and up. The race is 9 furlongs which is important because the field gets some extra distance before hitting the first turn. This should benefit the #11 filly, morning line favorite, Riolama (5/2). Of course, if I thought Riolama were a sure thing here, I wouldn't be writing about this race.
Riolama has every right to win this race. She is a lightly raced 3 year old coming off a new top last out with every right to improve with 3 months rest.
Another contender is #2 High On Kitten (6/1). This filly must be a bit of a disappointment to Ken and Sarah Ramsey with only 2 wins in 20 outings. Still, she appears to be a good fit here with figure wise and Wesley Ward and Julio Garcia have been clicking together for a gaudy 28% win rate when teaming up. She has got to figure on your tickets.
I also like the #9 Marlin Mission (4/1) running for Dale Romans. She is another lightly raced 3 year old with competitive figures who is likely to improve and it could be today.
Finally, I arrive at the key horse for today's race #1 Sex Appeal (12/1). Sex Appeal has little more experience than some others in here as a 4 year old filly. She runs between 6 and 8 Thoro-Graph numbers which places her right in the thick of it if she runs her best. By comparison, the best race for the morning line favorite Riolama is a 8 (lower numbers are better). Granted Riolama has a greater right to improve, but with only 13 career races, it is possible Sex Appeal has not yet fired her best shot. In addition, she draws the more favorable inside post and figures to save some ground relative to here outside competitors. Today could be the day she breaks out that life time best and I am willing to take the chance at 12/1 or somewhere in that neighborhood.
In plain English. 1. Sex Appeal to win and key with 11 Riolama, 2 High On Kitten, and 9 Marlin Mission in the exotic pools.
Late P4 at GP (Races 7-10): 7,8,9,6/7,6,3,1/1,11,2,9/5,8,2
Late P4 at Tampa (Races 7-10): 4,8,7,1/8,9,7,2/5,7,3/7,5,6,1
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Saturday, December 22, 2012
El Prado Stakes? Get Serious!
Today I'll take a peak at the El Prado Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The race drew a full field of 14 plus an Also Entered and promises to be a fun betting affair.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
First for the infamous DRF Best bet the experts at the Form settled on 5. Salto (5-1) trained by Todd and ridden by J.J. I understand their enthusiasm to some degree. First, it is Pletcher at GP which has been money in the bank in recent years. Second, Castellano may be the best jock going on turf right now. Third, Salto's last two races at Keeneland certainly put him in the thick of things here.
But, you knew there would be a "but" coming now didn't you, both those races at Keeneland were run on the poly track. Whenever Salto has run on turf his numbers become a little more pedestrian. Unless, this 4 nearly 5 year old, has made some quantum leap in ability, unlikely at this point in his career in my opinion, expect him to run back to his previous pedestrian turf figures. Good news for us is that it is Pletcher at GP in a Saturday stakes race, so expect Salto to take more money than he should from the betting lemmings, er I mean public.
Another horse sure to draw some attention will be the 14 Nikki's Sandcastle (7/2). NS was the winner of the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes last out on opening day of the GP meet. He is a member of a small, elite group of horses who are not owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey able to win a race that day.
On Dec. 1, NS broke from PP1. Today he will break from the unfortunate post 14. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but, trust me, post 14 at a mile on the turf course will be a tall order to fill.
So, after eliminating the DRF Best Bet and ML favorite, we are left with a wide open race to ponder.
In this race I narrowed my focus to 4 main contenders. The 10 Beaux Choix (6/1) is a capable turfer with figures making him a definite contender in this race. I think the 10 post is still a little difficult, if not as bad as the 14, so I have discounted his chances somewhat although he will be a factor on my Pick 4 tickets.
The second worthy of consideration is the 3 Get Serious (10/1). I have to admit that Get Serious is a personal favorite of mine so I may have a bit of bias with this one.
Here is a picture of my wife visiting with Get Serious and trainer John Forbes at his stall at Monmouth the day before the Haskell Stakes this year.
The 8 year old gelding has some plusses and minuses going for him in this race. On the plus side, he likes to run on firm turf, which he should get, he likes to run on the lead, which he should get, and I think jockey Elvis Trujillo may be a particularly good fit for Get Serious based on his ability to get horses wire to wire on the turf.
On the minus side, Get Serious has not been training seriously since leaving New Jersey with last Thursday's allowance sprint serving as a public workout. Also on the minus side is that the turf course has, thus far, not been particular kind to need to lead types like Get Serious.
I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins and will have him on my tickets, but I will go elsewhere for the key horse today.
Number 2 Teaks North (15/1) brings a ton of back class into this race. On the plus side, if he runs back to his 4 year old figures he will have a very good chance to win here. On the negative side he has been side lined for nearly 11 months. However, I am not a believer that these long layoffs are necessarily as bad as the old timers think they are. I think medications, therapies, and training techniques are much more advanced than they were even 10 years ago, and we all know about Richard Dutrow and medications, eh?
But finally, I need a horse to use as a key and the winner is, drum roll please, #6 Tune Me In (10/1). Tune Me In rounded into form in the G3 Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park on September 1 beating both Salto and Get Serious and hasn't missed a beat since. I look for Tune Me In to continue his good form under new trainer Jane Cibelli. Cibelli wins at an 18% clip when running a horse for the first time and if we get 10/1 this will be a bargain. Look for Tune Me In to stalk Get Serious again and try to take over when the horse hit the stretch.
Final analysis, Tune Me In to win and keyed in the exotics with Teaks North, Get Serious, and Beaux Choix.
Pick 4 selections races 7-10 GP: 6,9,5,7/5,2, 4, 3(?)/6,2,3,10,14/1,4,8,6,9,11
Pick 4 selections races 2-5 at Fair Grounds: 11,4,2,1a/1,3/8,1,5/4,6,7
Unfortunately Fair Grounds polluted the late P4 with a race for 2 year old all of which with the exception of one have never raced before. Sheesh?
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Dania Beach-G3
Welcome back for another adventure in handicapping. First last week's business. At Gulfstream Park our key pick, the 6. Distinctive Lady was a late scratch upon the vet's recommendation. The scratch of the 6 made the race unappealing to me and I sat it out. I was correct in my suspicions regarding Ju Ju Eyeballs who finished in obscurity somewhere.
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
As for my Fair Grounds Selection, you will recall I went to the 6th race there also. The race was a maiden race for 2 year old La. breds. The key horse, 9 Shanghai Princess was 8-1 in the ML and, as feared the combo of Calhoun and Napravnik drove the price down to 7-2 making her playable, but less attractive. Unfortunately, our princess never really fired and finished 6th in a field of 11. Fortunately, the consolation exacta with I Jus Wanna Hav Fun and Nola Girl paid $42.80 and the Tri which included first time starter selection Mischevious Mama paid $331.00 dollars which just goes to show there is more than one way to skin a race.
This week at Gulfstream they are running the Grade 3 Dania Beach for two year old turfers. I think this 10 horse field looks to be quite contentious and there may be an opportunity here to catch a price. The Morning Line favorite is Charming Kitten at 3-1. I think the price may go lower as the Pletcher/Velazquez combination is very powerful in the minds of the betting public.
Fortunately, the betting public does not dig much beyond name recognition and consider things like post position. The 10 post on the 1M grass course is not impossible but is still an obstacle to over come in a field that seems to be loaded with 2 yo talent, I am certainly not going to key what will likely be an underlaid colt with a compromising post position. That being said, she will be used in the Pick 4 and vertical exotics, but I'm looking elsewhere for the key.
In this race I settled on the 3 horse Itsmyluckyday (5-1). Itsmyluckyday ran well at Monmouth in early August in his only grass try. Since then he has won two stakes tries at Calder. Trainer Eddie Plesa states in a DRF interview that the Delta Downs effort should be discounted as Itsmyluckyday never really took to the track and I'm inclined to agree with him especially since even in that losing effort he ran a dirt figure which, if carried over to turf, could win in today's race. Hopefully, the prescence of Pletcher/Velazquez and an otherwise contentious field will help to keep this one's odds up around the ML.
Other horses to use in the vertical exotics include #7 Hard to Name (10-1) trained by John Servis and ridden by Joe Bravo. Hard to Name is the winner of his last two outings. The colt is sired by Hard Spun so the distance should not be an issue. If he takes to the surface, he has shown the ability to compete in this field. The other horse I would want to use is #4 Newfound Zapper (8-1). He broke his maiden last out on grass at this distance for Wesley Ward in October at Churchill. A move forward by this colt puts him in the hunt and opens the possibility for large payouts should these prices prevail at post time.
Bottom line Dania Beach Key the #3 with #10, #7, and #4 in the verticals and use the 3 and 10 horses as "A" horses for your Pick 4 tix.
I think that is all the heavy analysis I am going to give you this week. At NOLA (I think this is the now the trendy way of referring to New Orleans) in the Tenacious (R10) I like the 2 Hurrican Ike over the 1 It Happened Again, 3 Worldly and the 3-1 ML favorite 5 Apart.
Late Pick 4 at GP (races 7-10)-- 2,12,6,10/8,3,6,10/3,4,6,7,10/3,4,5,7
Late Pick 4 at FG (races 8-11)-- 2,5,6,9/1,3,6,7/2,1,3,5/2,1,4,10
Again I do not recommend you go cave man with these P4's as the cost can become prohibitive. I strongly urge you to use the DRF ticketmaker. It is free and a great tool for constructing smart multi race wagers.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Louisianna Champions Day at the Fair Grounds
Coming back after what was a brilliant Claiming Crown Championship day put on at Gulfstream Park. I personally congratulate GP on getting and pulling off those races in exemplary form. Last Saturday was a tough act to follow, so it is natural to feel a little let down about today's card at GP. The feature race is the G3 Sugar Swirl which drew the Breeders' Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint runner up Dust and Diamonds. Looks to be the one to beat here and I will not try to beat her. Unfortunately, her prescence will pollute the Pick 4 as everyone will be using her, as will I, as a single.
Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing. I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs. It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn. What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race. If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story. However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason. She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.
#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race. I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made a little improvement in her last outing. The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing. This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry. She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill. She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her. This race is the type she belongs in.
There you have it. I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her. I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case. If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice. If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.
P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)
P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice. If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses. All others are "B". Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.
At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds. Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different. But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.
#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1. I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up. I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done. But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here. Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl. I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans. I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here. The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking. She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's. If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run. If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time. Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key. Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.
P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds
P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single. He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Going through today's GP card I found myself landing on a lot of Morning Line favorites which is never a good thing. I do think in the first race, a 15k claimer for 2yo fillies, there may be a chance to take a stand against a filly that rates to get a lot of betting action from the public, the #4 Ju Ju Eyeballs. It will be interesting to watch the tote board on this one and see if she gets any early money from the barn. What makes her interesting is she won her 2nd Maiden race at Monmouth on June 1, ran 4th of 7 in the My Dear Stakes for 150K at Woodbine on June 24, then was put on the shelf until now only to be dropped into a relatively low level claiming race. If Ju Ju Eyeballs runs back to her early form she crushes the field, end of story. However, I think the Wesley Ward barn must have given up on her for a reason. She may still have enough in the tank to beat this field, but I think there is enough reason to look elsewhere.
#6 Distinction Lady A (6-1) already has 2 wins under belt and looks set up to make a forward move off of her last race. I will use her as the key horse in the race. #8 Heir To A Slew (8-1) made a little improvement in her last outing. The kind of improvement which suggests to me she is beginning to get the idea of racing. This will be h,er first try against winners but I think she merits a spot on the exotic tickets. #7 Viva's Party Girl (4-1) is another Ward entry. She won at first asking on June 1 in maiden claimer at Churchill. She's been off since then, but you can make the case that she is likely to have improved with time and maturity from 6 months prior, and, unlike Ju Ju Eyeballs, you can't say that they are placing her in this race because they have given up on her. This race is the type she belongs in.
There you have it. I will key the 6 with the 7 and 8 in the exacta pool as well as put something to win on her. I will also hedge a little bit with Ju Ju Eyeballs on top of 6,7, and 8 just in case. If I can keep the ML favorite out of the exacta the payoff should be pretty nice. If Ju Ju runs back to previous form, I should, at least, recapture some of my investment.
P4's P5's and P6's for today's GP Card (note the preferred choice is listed first, after that...)
P4 Starting R2: 1,5,6/9,3,4,8/1,3,7/2,4,6,7
P6 Starting R5: 2,4,6,7/10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P5 Starting R6: 10,4,5/5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
P4 Starting R7: 5,1,3/3,1,4,6,10,11/6/6,8,11
If you play cave man style, you don't need my advice. If you use the DRF Ticket Formulator, In Race 6 I will use the 2,4,7 as "A" horses and In Race 8 I will use the 1 and 3 as "A" horses. All others are "B". Note that I will single the 6 Dust and Diamonds in the 9th so everything will hinge on her.
At Fair Grounds it is Louisianna Champions Day set aside for La. Breds. Such days always bring surprises and I'm sure today will be no different. But, I think the best spot opportunity may come in a Maiden race for La. bred 2 yo fillies in race 6.
#9 Shanghai Princess (8/1) is trained by Bret Calhoun and ridden by Rosie Napravnik, so I was a little surprised the line maker made her 8/1. I will be just as surprised to see this ML price hold up. I expect she may wind up the 2nd choice and maybe favored when all is said and done. But, if she can stay up around the 9-2 or 5-1 area, we may have a tasty little overlay here. Key the 9 with the tepid ML favorite #11 Nola Girl. I think these two are probably a wash as far as ability, so if Rosie's horse gets too over bet, she will be over bet, flip the 11 and the 9 in your wagering plans. I am also intrigued by a couple of firsters here. The #1 Mischievous Mama (8/1) runs for Wesley Hawley and looks like a good play statistically speaking. She is by Into Mischief whose first timer have won at a very nice 21% rate with a 16% win rate for 2yo's. If that is not enough Hawley wins 24% of the time with first time 2 year olds meaning he brings them to the track ready to run. If that is not enough, Hawley and Miguel Mena when teamed up win 24% of the time. Gee maybe I'll use the 1 filly as my Key. Something to consider if the 9 and 11 take to much action. Round out the superfecta will be the #3 I Jus Wana Hav Fun (9/2) who finished 2nd against similar last out on this track.
P4's and P5's for Fair Grounds
P4 Starting Race 5: 9,3,6,7/ 9.1,3,11/3,5/1,3
P5 Starting Race 9: 2,6,8,9/2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
P4 Starting Race 10: 2,5,7,8/3,1,7,11/7/4,10,11
For the P5 and late P4 the #7 Speedacious will be used as a single. He looks that much better than the rest to me which makes the P5 a little more affordable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat!
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Success On Opening Day at GP
Let's get to the race of the day the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. The 6th race on the Gulfstream Card. As you know I settled on the 5 horse Off The Jak who was 10-1 in the morning line. For a large part of the betting leading up to the race, it looked as if the 10-1 would hold. A lot of late money finally came in on Off The Jak and we went off at still acceptable 7-1.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
Off The Jak got off well and assumed his customary postion as the race leader. So far, so good as this is where he likes to run. All the while, he was being pressed by another Chalk Eating Weasel contender Won Fast Bullet. Bernie The Maestro assumed the role of stalker sitting in the cat bird seat and tracking the two leaders. So far everything is going to plan.
What about Peb Hughes, the intrepid and observant reader may ask. Well I was right about that bogus 6-1 morning line as PH went off as the 9-5 favorite. I was also right about the DRF "best bet" kiss of death. I don't know about you, but my idea of a "best bet" is not a 4-5 favorite that anyone with just a passing acquaintance with a racing form can and will come with. I have found that the DRF best bets almost come to the level of tosses. I don't go that far because sometimes even 4-5 favorites do win, but many times they do not.
As they came around the turn, Bernie made his move which proved to be too much for Won Fast Bullet who was unable to provide much resistance at this point. Off The Jak did not go down without a fight, but it was clear that the day was going to belong to Bernie the Maestro.
The Bernie the Maestro-Off The Jak exacta payed a cozy 59.20. Won Fast Bullet was able to stay on for the show and the Trifecta if you went that deep into the pick paid 133.30 for a mere one dollar bill. Not bad work if I do say so myself.
Later that day I managed to hit, oh, dare I say it, the Pick 4 paying $1765.05. In both race 8 and race 10, horses I intended to use were scratched and I had to make last minute substitutions to replace the absent runners. That is why you have to follow me on twitter @cobb42 as I Tweeted my final P4 sequence once the scratches were accounted for.
These happened to be fortuitous substitutions as both came home first to complete the four race sequence. That and a being on the right side of a sphincter tightening photo brought home the bacon. Fortuna smiled upon the weasel.
addendum The late P4 at GP for those who may care
R7 #12, 13, 6, 5
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
R8#14, 3, 1 I think there is a chance for a big upset in this race
R9# 1, 3, 5
R10# 1, 3, 2, 8.
I haven't seen the scratches yet and a few of these are cross-entered so may be scratched.
Claiming Crown at Gulfstream Park
Time is of the essence, so I will dispense with the flowery prose.
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
The Claiming Crown races at GP will offer many good betting opportunities. The one that jumps off the Thoro-Graph sheets to me is the 6th race, the Rapid Transit. The morning line Favorite is the 2, Coosada (7/2). Coosada is a one run closer with no early speed. These types do not win very often on GP's main track. Instead I want to focus on Off The Jak (10/1). Off The Jak may be the lone speed in the race and has the conditioning benefit of having raced over Calder's tiring race course. Off The Jak's sheet figures, discounting the last race where he had to contend for the lead in a Fl. Bred Stakes race, are competitive with the other major contenders here. The connections of trainer Shivananda Parbhoo and jockey Jose Alvarez are capable and not likely to draw betting attention as will some of the bigger name trainers in the race.
Also contending in this race will be Peb Hughes (6/1). Because this horse is trained by Richard Dutrow and will be ridden by Javier Castellano, it has gotten a lot of DRF attention and is in fact their best bet. Peb Hughes is capable of winning here, but if you think you will get 6/1 after the DRF kiss of death, you're smoking something.
Our old friend Bernie the Maestro (4/1) is back. Bernie has a lot of back class and appears to be rounding into some semblance of good form, but he will have to do a lot of work from the 13 post to avoid having a wide trip around the turn. Consider him on your verticals, but I think you should look elsewhere for the winner, as I have already said.
Finally, if you are looking for someone to fill out that superfecta, take a look at Won Fast Bullet (10/1) starting for Michael Maker under Alan Garcia. Maker wins 25% first time after a trainer change, claimed from Dutrow, and they finish in the money 52% of the time for him. Won Fast Bullet will need to run his best, or better, but has numbers which suggest he could get up for a piece of the action here.
So, to put it in plain English. Use the 5 Off the Jak with the 7, 13, and 9.
The Fair Grounds card this weekend is a less than inspiring affair. So rather than try to break down some state bred maiden claiming race for 2yo's that nobody cares about, I will lay out my late Pick 4 selections.
Race 7 I like in order: 7 Counterblow (7/2), 9 Greenhavens Reward (9/2), 5 Dorsett (6/1) and 3 Cairo Six (4/1)
Race 8 looks pretty chalky: 7 Done Gone (2/1), 3 Contemporaray (5/2) and 1 Hudson's Creed (9/2).
Race 9-- 9 Wits End (9/2) , 10 Midnight Heist 6/1), 4 Banta (3/1), and 2 Manchac (7/2).
Race 10 is one of those 2 yo MCL events and you are either going to have to go with the one obvious horse 1. Hello Kitty Lou (8/5), or hit the all button. It's up to you.
Good luck and see you next week
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